Alan Liefting
2005-09-15 02:49:23 UTC
Dear Voters
Some people have told me that while they would like to party-vote Green,
they will be voting Labour instead to avoid a Brash government. In fact
voting this way could ENSURE a Brash government. Matt McCarten's column
in last week's Herald on Sunday (reproduced below) says it all. Please
read it and think hard. Labour cannot make it into government without
the Greens. And the Greens cannot make it without getting at least 5% of
the party vote. It's the TOTAL of the Green and Labour party vote that
counts.
While we obviously expect to do considerably better than 5%, we will not
do so if Green sympathetic voters vote for Labour in the mistaken belief
that they are helping to keep out Brash. While I don't necessarily
endorse everything in Matt's article, I would ask you to circulate it to
your friends and aquaintances so that they can make an informed choice
on Saturday.
Yours Sincerely
Russel Norman
Green Campaign Manager
Matt McCarten, Herald on Sunday, pg 33, September 11, 2005
There is no doubt that this election is close and no one wants to waste
their vote. I'm constantly asked by people how they should use their two
votes to ensure a centre-left government. In the partisan interest of
helping the centre-left I offer the following tactical guide to killing
the right at this election.
Obviously Labour needs to get over 40 per cent of the party vote to have
any chance to govern. From their point of view they would like to get to
45 per cent. You can add Jim Anderton to their number. But they will
still need the Greens. As I say to soft Green supporters who are
thinking of voting Labour, if Labour gets 44 per cent of the party vote
and the Greens get 5 per cent of the party vote, that equals 49 per
cent. That means that with Anderton they can govern. But if Labour gets
44.1 per cent and the Greens get 4.9 per cent, that equals 44.1 per
cent. Let me spell it out even clearer: If the Greens go under 5 per
cent they get no seats in parliament at all and Brash becomes Prime
Minister. So if you're a soft Green or an independent and want a
Labour-Green government, you should give your party vote to the Greens.
If you're a die-hard Labourite then, of course, vote Labour.
More worryingly for the centre-left, Winston has been trying to come
back into the game in the past few days. Winston's position is that he
will support either National or Labour on the basis of which of them
gets the most seats. This is music to National's ears and validates
their election strategy to go for broke to win the entire centre-right
bloc's party vote. It meant killing Act, but it's not like Act
supporters have anyone else to vote for. The National campaign is now to
get more party votes than Labour. If they achieve this, Brash gets Peter
Dunne and New Zealand First and that's enough to govern on current
polling. Therefore, it would be a dangerous thing now for National to
tell Epsom voters to swing in behind Rodney Hide. If they do, then Act
sympathisers who are currently supporting National outside Epsom will
realise their party vote won't be wasted. They will see that if Rodney
wins Epsom they can swing back to Act who could then get 3-4 per cent of
the party vote. But all of that vote comes directly off National in the
all-important party vote. Winston and Dunne then are duty bound to
support Labour in Government. So, sorry, Rodney, if National wants to
win, it means you are history.
Normally the electorate vote has no meaning, but it does in this
election. Tariana Turia, Anderton, Dunne and Peters all hold seats and
if they win, all their party votes will count and their supporters may
well determine the outcome.
So this is how you vote to keep out the right if you are a voter in the
following electorates.
Wigram: Labour needs Anderton to win his seat so give him your
electorate vote. But his Progressive Party isn't rating more than 0.5
per cent, so any party vote for his party is wasted. Give it to either
Labour or the Greens.
Tauranga: Winston will back Brash if he gets back and National gets more
votes. Even if he backs Labour he'll stop any progressive policy being
advanced. If Winston loses the seat and NZ First goes under 5 per cent
in the party vote, then Winston and all his MPs go down. Therefore, you
hold your nose and give your electorate vote to the National candidate
so Winston loses Tauranga.
Epsom: If Hide can't win this seat then Act is finished. Labour needs to
let their supporters tactically vote for Richard Worth.
Ohariu-Belmont: Dunne is safe here, but if he has no other MPs after the
election then he will be able to be ignored. Don't vote for United
Future as they will go with National if they can.
Te Tai Haururu: Tariana Turia is safe here. Current polling suggests the
Maori Party can nationally get only one or two MPs off their party list,
but given that they will win four electorates, at least, all their party
votes will be wasted. The Maori Party will not support National and
recent polls show that Labour may well need the Maori Party. Maori seat
voters should give their electorate vote to the Maori Party electorate
candidate. That way the Maori Party will win all seven seats and lock
Brash out of government. Maori voters should give their party vote to
the Greens. after all, if the Greens get back they will be in
government. Having an ally around the cabinet table would be a good thing.
If the left votes strategically then they should win, even it it's
tight. Right-wingers should look to Deborah Coddington or Bob Jones for
advice. After all, that's their job.
Matt McCarten
Some people have told me that while they would like to party-vote Green,
they will be voting Labour instead to avoid a Brash government. In fact
voting this way could ENSURE a Brash government. Matt McCarten's column
in last week's Herald on Sunday (reproduced below) says it all. Please
read it and think hard. Labour cannot make it into government without
the Greens. And the Greens cannot make it without getting at least 5% of
the party vote. It's the TOTAL of the Green and Labour party vote that
counts.
While we obviously expect to do considerably better than 5%, we will not
do so if Green sympathetic voters vote for Labour in the mistaken belief
that they are helping to keep out Brash. While I don't necessarily
endorse everything in Matt's article, I would ask you to circulate it to
your friends and aquaintances so that they can make an informed choice
on Saturday.
Yours Sincerely
Russel Norman
Green Campaign Manager
Matt McCarten, Herald on Sunday, pg 33, September 11, 2005
There is no doubt that this election is close and no one wants to waste
their vote. I'm constantly asked by people how they should use their two
votes to ensure a centre-left government. In the partisan interest of
helping the centre-left I offer the following tactical guide to killing
the right at this election.
Obviously Labour needs to get over 40 per cent of the party vote to have
any chance to govern. From their point of view they would like to get to
45 per cent. You can add Jim Anderton to their number. But they will
still need the Greens. As I say to soft Green supporters who are
thinking of voting Labour, if Labour gets 44 per cent of the party vote
and the Greens get 5 per cent of the party vote, that equals 49 per
cent. That means that with Anderton they can govern. But if Labour gets
44.1 per cent and the Greens get 4.9 per cent, that equals 44.1 per
cent. Let me spell it out even clearer: If the Greens go under 5 per
cent they get no seats in parliament at all and Brash becomes Prime
Minister. So if you're a soft Green or an independent and want a
Labour-Green government, you should give your party vote to the Greens.
If you're a die-hard Labourite then, of course, vote Labour.
More worryingly for the centre-left, Winston has been trying to come
back into the game in the past few days. Winston's position is that he
will support either National or Labour on the basis of which of them
gets the most seats. This is music to National's ears and validates
their election strategy to go for broke to win the entire centre-right
bloc's party vote. It meant killing Act, but it's not like Act
supporters have anyone else to vote for. The National campaign is now to
get more party votes than Labour. If they achieve this, Brash gets Peter
Dunne and New Zealand First and that's enough to govern on current
polling. Therefore, it would be a dangerous thing now for National to
tell Epsom voters to swing in behind Rodney Hide. If they do, then Act
sympathisers who are currently supporting National outside Epsom will
realise their party vote won't be wasted. They will see that if Rodney
wins Epsom they can swing back to Act who could then get 3-4 per cent of
the party vote. But all of that vote comes directly off National in the
all-important party vote. Winston and Dunne then are duty bound to
support Labour in Government. So, sorry, Rodney, if National wants to
win, it means you are history.
Normally the electorate vote has no meaning, but it does in this
election. Tariana Turia, Anderton, Dunne and Peters all hold seats and
if they win, all their party votes will count and their supporters may
well determine the outcome.
So this is how you vote to keep out the right if you are a voter in the
following electorates.
Wigram: Labour needs Anderton to win his seat so give him your
electorate vote. But his Progressive Party isn't rating more than 0.5
per cent, so any party vote for his party is wasted. Give it to either
Labour or the Greens.
Tauranga: Winston will back Brash if he gets back and National gets more
votes. Even if he backs Labour he'll stop any progressive policy being
advanced. If Winston loses the seat and NZ First goes under 5 per cent
in the party vote, then Winston and all his MPs go down. Therefore, you
hold your nose and give your electorate vote to the National candidate
so Winston loses Tauranga.
Epsom: If Hide can't win this seat then Act is finished. Labour needs to
let their supporters tactically vote for Richard Worth.
Ohariu-Belmont: Dunne is safe here, but if he has no other MPs after the
election then he will be able to be ignored. Don't vote for United
Future as they will go with National if they can.
Te Tai Haururu: Tariana Turia is safe here. Current polling suggests the
Maori Party can nationally get only one or two MPs off their party list,
but given that they will win four electorates, at least, all their party
votes will be wasted. The Maori Party will not support National and
recent polls show that Labour may well need the Maori Party. Maori seat
voters should give their electorate vote to the Maori Party electorate
candidate. That way the Maori Party will win all seven seats and lock
Brash out of government. Maori voters should give their party vote to
the Greens. after all, if the Greens get back they will be in
government. Having an ally around the cabinet table would be a good thing.
If the left votes strategically then they should win, even it it's
tight. Right-wingers should look to Deborah Coddington or Bob Jones for
advice. After all, that's their job.
Matt McCarten